One word in a Brussels committee room moved EUR 200 billion of factory investment into the uncertain column. The word is zero.
On 4 November the European Parliament’s environment committee voted through an amendment that counts cars running only on qualifying renewable fuels, known in the text as VEEF, as zero-emission vehicles. The category is live from day one of the regulation. It carries no volume cap. Environmental groups have already asked for the cap to be set at 5 per cent of new registrations.
What VEEF actually means
A VEEF is a passenger car or van that runs only on renewable, low-carbon fuels meeting set sustainability criteria. The test is not what leaves the exhaust pipe. It is where the carbon came from and whether an equal amount is taken back out of the atmosphere or from biomass across the full life cycle. Three fuel families qualify. Synthetic e-fuels made from renewable power, green hydrogen and captured CO2. Advanced biofuels from farm residue, used cooking oil and municipal waste. And other renewable low-carbon fuels that meet the EU sustainability and greenhouse gas thresholds.
Who is pushing, and who is paying
Porsche and Ferrari are the most visible supporters. For them the category is the practical route to keeping the 911 flat-six and the V12 on sale after 2035. Porsche has already put money into an e-fuels pilot plant in Chile. A more concrete test is running in Spain, where Toyota, BMW, Bosch and the Spanish energy company Repsol started a six-month trial in July with around 20 Toyota and BMW cars running on 100 per cent renewable petrol from public pumps. Pascal Ruch, who leads corporate and government affairs at Toyota, said the partners believe renewable fuels can work alongside electrification. Italy’s industry association ANFIA welcomed the new category outright.
The bill arrives elsewhere. Transport and Environment, the Brussels-based campaign group, puts the cost in shares. The minimum battery-electric share of new car sales would fall from 57 per cent to 39 per cent in 2030, and from 100 per cent to 69 per cent in 2035. On that arithmetic one car in three sold in 2035 need not be electric. The group warns that the looser rule puts at risk roughly EUR 200 billion already committed to the European electric vehicle supply chain, with cell plants, e-drive lines and charging hardware first in line for weaker demand. The European consumer organisation BEUC makes a narrower point. Flexibility pulls investment away from cheap electric cars and towards plug-in hybrids and biofuels, so the affordable model arrives later.
Two problems the text does not solve
The first is fuel monitoring. Once a certified VEEF is on the road, how does Brussels know it only ever fills qualifying fuel? Without tamper-proof monitoring, a driver facing cheaper petrol at the next station can fill up, and the zero-emission classification on paper does not change. The second is supply. Transport and Environment notes that domestic European capacity cannot meet biofuel demand, so the bloc leans on imported used cooking oil from Asia, refined biodiesel from China and ethanol from the United States. It puts the import share of used cooking oil at 80 per cent and flags fraud risk, including virgin palm oil declared as waste.
The next vote is the December plenary, after which the file goes to the Council, which has not fixed its own position. Nothing about this is settled. What is settled is the shape of the fight. Battery supply chains and fuel supply chains are no longer arguing about ambition. They are arguing over the same allocation of capital.
European suppliers planning 2027 cell capacity now have a second scenario to price, and the trigger date is a plenary vote in December, not a market signal.
Editor’s note: This is an adapted translation of the original Gasgoo report. It has been trimmed and restructured for readability for an international business audience. The full original (in Chinese) is at https://auto.gasgoo.com/news/202611/10I70477507C108.shtml.