JPMorgan said on 12 November that US humanoid robot production could reach 300,000 to 400,000 units a year by 2030 and about 1.5 million by 2035, as the industry shifts from demonstrations to commercial deployment.
Labour shortages, improving unit economics and rising manufacturing capacity are pushing adoption in manufacturing, logistics and warehousing, where companies want repetitive work automated.
The gap between the forecast and the order book
The forecast sits a long way from current capacity. Excluding Tesla, most US humanoid manufacturers are targeting annual output of 10,000 to 30,000 units. Scale deployment still faces constraints in hardware capability, AI training data, computing capacity and manufacturing throughput.
On economics, JPMorgan estimates humanoid costs have moved close to parity with human labour. If a robot can run across multiple production shifts, a single customer could save about USD 100,000 a year in labour cost.
The bottlenecks it names are dexterous hands, actuators, the robot brain and production capacity. Hands perform fine manipulation, actuators drive joints and limbs, and the brain handles decision-making and control.
Where the money is made first
JPMorgan’s view is that component suppliers capture value first. As humanoid output grows, the market for actuators, motors and vision systems could approach USD 30 billion by 2035. Among suppliers it highlights Timken, Korea’s Robotis, China’s Leader Drive and Orbbec, and Cognex.
Among US humanoid manufacturers it lists Tesla with Optimus, Agility Robotics with Digit, Boston Dynamics with Atlas, Figure AI and Apptronik with Apollo as the main players.
There is also a policy variable. JPMorgan notes the Trump administration has determined that imported robots and industrial machinery could pose a national security risk, a finding that may lead to tariffs or other restrictions designed to move production onshore.
The sequencing it describes is familiar from other hardware cycles. Component suppliers earn first, while volumes are low and every unit needs the same expensive parts. Value then migrates to manufacturers and platform integrators as the industry matures and assembly costs fall. For now the industry is firmly in the first phase, which is why the forecast and the order book look so far apart.
Editor’s note: This is an adapted translation of the original Gasgoo report. It has been trimmed and restructured for readability for an international business audience. The full original (in Chinese) is at https://auto.gasgoo.com/news/202611/12I70477805C601.shtml.